The 2024 election is one that a competent, less fascist, generic Republican candidate for president would probably clean house and crush Democrats. Joe Biden is unpopular, people were mad about inflation and other post pandemic effects, and governing parties across the first world are getting mauled by voters for it. By slaving itself to Trump, a dipshit that has made the GOP grossly underperform in every election since 2016, the Party and its voters are working as hard as possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Kamala Harris will probably win more votes than Donald Trump in the 2024 election across the United States. But of course that is not determinative of the victor in our system. No, the only thing that really matters is the the results in the few states where the race appears competitive to flip electoral votes to one candidate or the other to get to that magical number of 270. There are seven such states this cycle: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The polls across these states are in a dead heat, and most poll aggregators and models reasonably show these races going to either candidate. Critically, this all depends on the polls being accurate. The science of polling is necessarily complex, imprecise, and subject to lots of different reasonable decisions by pollsters. All polls have a stated margin of error for this reason, and this often can be an understatement of possible error. A small error in the polling across any of these states this cycle means a possible blowout in favor of either candidate.
I choose to believe that the voters will show the world that the US is better than the fascist politics of Donald Trump this year and that there are voters being missed in polling who will rise to the occasion. The surprise Iowa poll from Selzer this year showing Harris +3 caught is likely an outlier, but might suggest that other pollsters are missing movement to Harris in the Midwest in particular, or herding amongst pollsters who are concerned about polling errors in favor of Trump in 2016 and 2020 and trying to compensate. I think this portends well for Harris in the states she absolutely needs to win: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and that she will win them as a result.
Could Harris pull other states alongside other states outside this “Blue Wall” if there is a polling error? Regardless, in all battleground states, by definition, the final results are likely to be close even with such errors.
Nevada guru Jon Ralston believes Harris has a slight edge in that state. That is the most compelling evidence I can discern that isn’t pure speculation, and I think it will go for Harris.
The polling for Arizona has consistently been the worst for Harris this cycle, likely due to a combination of demographic change and Arizona’s border state status where immigration is the Democratic Party’s biggest weakness in polling. I think it will go for Trump this year.
That leaves North Carolina and Georgia. Georgia famously went for Biden in 2020 by a razor thin margin, and also for the Democrats in a crucial Senate race in early January 2021. Republicans in that state passed laws to try to restrict voting (also see) and stem Democratic gains as best as they can. In a state so close in polling and recent results, small tweaks to the turnout can make the difference either way. But Georgia itself has been rapidly adding residents in its most Democratic areas. I think it will go for Harris.
North Carolina, I think, is probably closer and more likely to break like Arizona to Trump. It has only gone once for Democrats since 2000 (2008 for Obama), but notably was a close contest in 2020. My theory for why North Carolina might break for Harris really boils down to the fact that the Republicans there nominated Mark Robinson for the governor’s race, a man who has called himself “a black nazi,” amongst other more lurid things that have been reported. Robinson is a buffoon and quack who will get thumped in that contest. Trump has meekly tried to distance himself. If there is any way for a down ballot race to drag down the national ticket, it should be this. As such, I think it will go for Harris as well.
That leaves the final tally for this prediction at 308 electoral votes for Harris to Trump’s 230.
As AJ Thinks 