2012 Electoral College Prediction

So I volunteered at an Obama event over the past weekend. I had to wake up at about 5:45am to make the 5 hour drive from Eau Claire to Milwaukee, where  I helped with directing the crowd that stretched into the downtown area for 6 miles, about 18,000 people. The energy in the air was ecstatic.

Obviously I think that Obama will win the 2012 election with this kind of energy. I don’t see Romney gaining anymore ground, especially after the debates where he will do no favors for himself. Romney’s chances are rapidly deteriorating, and everyone following the race can feel the momentum building for Obama in the last 50 days of the election. I’ll be posting several things in the next couple weeks explaining where I think Romney killed his campaign, and why he is even worse than the McCain/Palin ticket. But what I wanted to do in this post was lay out my prediction for the exact electoral outcome for the election, so that when it happens, I feel cool and you all think I’m smart.

Here is my prediction-

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map#CO-D,FL-D,IA-D,NV-D,NH-D,OH-D,PA-D,VA-D,WI-D

Electoral votes:

332 Obama   –  206 Romney

So looking at the map above you will see that the blue and red states respectively and their electoral values. The blue states leaning  to Obama  are unlikely to deteriorate to Romney, which already puts Obama at 237 electoral votes of the 270 he needs. But the red states leaning Romney are more vulnerable to change. There are 9 tossup states on that list, down from about 11 which use to include Michigan (Romney’s home state where his dad was governor) and Pennsylvania where the polls are swinging to Obama, and Romney is no longer concentrating resources on either.

First, the easiest states to decide. Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Polling has largely favored Obama in Nevada and Colorado, states that went for him in 2008 and have growing hispanic populations that vote very democratic. It doesn’t help that Romney’s idea of immigration reform is self-deportation, a policy of creating miserable conditions for illegals so they go back to their home countries, which is also a joke created by the latino community. New Hampshire and Iowa are sometimes seen as battlegrounds for their independent streaks, something no doubt created by the fact that both states are the first to be campaigned in by presidential hopefuls, and during primaries are flooded with more money than you can imagine, inflating that somewhat over-rated image. But they went for Obama comfortably in 2008, and with polls not likely moving to Romney much, I don’t think it’s competitive as some might think. My dear Wisconsin is viewed as a battleground because it voted for Walker twice and the VP pick for Romney is Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin. But in the recall, as I’ve said before, 52% of exit polls showed favorability for Obama. There have also been new polls showing Obama with a 14 point lead in the state. While it will be a smaller margin of victory for Obama than in 2008, I don’t see a chance of Romney winning a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican president since Reagan.

Now comes the tough states. Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Obama should win Virginia. With governor  Bob McDonnell, the state has been energizing woman voters in a way they might not have before the controversy over the extreme anti-abortion legislation passed. Women, who in all polls show heavy favoritism for Obama by double-digit margins. Had the state not been in such furor, the state might be a little more competitive. North Carolina is the only state the Obama won in 2008 that Romney will likely win this year, and is the state that might swing towards Obama if he gains a lot of momentum. This is the state I am the least certain about, but if I had to place a bet I’d give it to Romney. Ohio and Florida are the biggest battleground states in our age of politics. They are viewed as essential to most presidential campaigns, yet Obama could lose both and still win if he wins the other battleground states. Ohio’s polls show a surprising lead for Obama that neither campaign expected to a degree. This is due to the auto bailouts that Obama tailored, which saved the American auto industry from collapse, and resulted in millions of saved and created jobs. A huge part of Ohio’s jobs are auto related, with 4-6 jobs being created for every auto worker because of auto related industry. This has created a more favorable economic climate in Ohio, which has an unemployment rate below 8%. Seeing as Romney said Detroit and the auto industry should burn to the ground, it probably resonates with those job holders and translates to a pretty solid victory for Obama. Florida is the closest race to call, and is the most vulnerable to even the slightest change in the polls. I give it to Obama because of one very important factor. The inclusion of Paul Ryan in the race is what should cement Florida blue because of his proposal to radically transform Medicare. Whether it be a Democrat or Republican, seniors are extremely sensitive to things about Social Security and Medicare because it is their lifeline. So when they hear about radical proposals that might not even affect them, it is very alarming. Seniors and Latinos are huge voting blocks in Florida, and if they both go for Obama in even a simple majority, he will likely carry the state.

The Senate and House races are much more difficult to make predictions about, because there is a variety of local factors in each race. The races are also effected by the support for the presidential candidates, because most voters vote a straight party ticket. So if Romney is put in an even worse position than he is right now, that could translate into more seats for Democrats. So I leave this prediction for much closer to the election, as those are much more competitive.

With the intensive partisan environment that has dominated politics since Obama was elected, it was never a good chance he would have the blowout he had in 2008. But his position is still very favorable with numerous paths to 270 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney’s campaign is in panic mode because they understand their odds are so slim now. The Romney campaign has figured they will need over 60% of the white male vote to compensate for their miserable standings with minorities and women. But that fanciful scenario will only happen if the Republicans can generate another few million angry, middle-aged white guys out of thin air.

So on election day when you see the results match all this, think of me fondly.

332 Obama   –  206 Romney